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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence receives the prize. However, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest surprise.

Yet this year's field is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners declining and longtime also-rans rising in unison. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still