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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The election has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd