A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
